Last Bitcoin Support - It's Not $60K - YouTube 雙語字幕

Last Bitcoin Support - It's Not $60K - 雙語字幕

Hello and welcome to our episode of Casual Friday.

I'm here with the Duck.

As always the show is brought to you by Wu.

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Don, you've been tweeting a lot.

I never know whether that's good or bad for the market or what implications it may have for the future,

but certainly the platform has become more usable, it seems, given that you're well using it.

And that can only mean that altcoins went down,

because I feel like there's some sort of inverse correlation between altcoin price and the usability of Twitter for you.

And now that you've been active, do you want sort of talk us through your experience and focus on that?

I mean it was basically all the meme guys like I when I posted that I thought memes were like

overvalued and I'm gonna go down and the hype was kind of like peaking people got really upset

at me and it got that bad that I just didn't want to tweet anymore because I mean

like 20 comments are shit and one is good.

I what's the point, right?

So I used it less and now that kind of my thesis,

my meme thesis has played out and I mean,

the general awkward market has tanked,

but I would say like,

like, I've had a lot of people be like, hey, you got lucky because the entire awkward

market tanked and that's why the memes are down.

But I think that's the wrong way to look at it because,

meme coins where the one thing everyone was trading, right, like no one actually traded anything else.

So like that, like getting that market right is getting everything right.

So it's always gonna be.

But yeah,

that was kind of like the whole experience, basically, like I got so much shit that I didn't really feel like being on Twitter anymore.

Now I'm getting not as much shit.

And I'm sure the moment this market bounces, which I mean, today, like the sentiment has flipped quite bearish generally, I think.

So the moment you get like a little bit of an update, you're gonna see the hate return.

I can already feel it.

But yeah, so far so good so far so usable.

Do you think that the well,

I your read on sentiment and your use of sentiment has been vindicated this time around because during the discussion we had on casual Friday where I essentially probed like to what extent is Twitter sentiment

and your replies useful for setups and the answer was it turned out to be very useful because some levels you would close out and then if sentiment was bad enough you'd like keep the short etc.

So it was important enough to Sort of trade parameters and trade ideas that they're very cool.

I guess that's played out slash has been vindicated What's your experience?

What does that kind of process look like where your trade managing and sentiment is a big part of it?

But you hate fucking using Twitter like is it like a dynamic thing?

Is it just in your head you get that initial burst and think okay?

These are fucking dumb and I can stop paying

attention Do you go back and like check and set some bait periodically like how I guess yeah, how advanced is this sentiment farming system?

I mean I do I do set some bait from time to time.

Yes.

No, basically like when you And had this before, right?

It's not like this is the first time that this has happened.

It's basically,

I still remember in 2017-18,

like my comments were generally really nice, but I still got quite a bit of shit, which I wasn't used to back then.

And, like, pretty much every single time where I was like, hey, I think this market is overheating, this has been the response, right?

It's the first time.

It's just the worst, right?

It's never been this bad.

And then I just like,

if Twitter becomes unusable, I'm just like, okay, I'm pretty certain that the position or like the market thoughts that I have are correct.

There's a lot of people on the other side of it that are terrified otherwise you wouldn't like

terrified or just in general like very very stupid because otherwise you wouldn't really engage right

like there's there's a bunch of people that disagree with me that

but they don't engage right like why would you why would you go into someone's

comments and be like are you suck the fuck off like only people that really

like suck at trading do that and when you know that a bunch of people that are

really bad at what they do on the opposite side and a very cool.

It becomes easier to hold positions,

basically, because what you have to realize when you're bearish, these things, after they've gone up like 200, 300, 400, 10, 10, 000,

right, is that it's not easy to hold.

I mean, you've seen what they can do.

Everyone is telling you that you're wrong.

So having that helps, right?

And like skilled trader friends or whatever would not necessarily agree all the time.

So like just having that added confluence of just, And people that are not so smart in comments, just helps.

I would not base my entire trade around it.

I had solid setups on pretty much everything.

And solid logic too, it wasn't just like, hey, these need to be put down.

It's not how it works.

It's more like I have a solid read on this.

The whole meme thing peaked with the ETH ETF, right?

Like that became like a little bit louder.

Like the tail end of the memes basically and that makes sense right because the memes were all on Solana and the moment

You shift focus away from Solana to something else

you're gonna the deck on our stuffer and then through that Solana is gonna suffer and

Here we are now now like a couple months later and that all played out.

Now Twitter is usable again, it's why I closed shorts.

Just took a little bit of profit in like the last few days on a lot of the stuff that I've been shooting down.

Not necessarily because I think they're bottomed.

I a lot of these like can go much lower,

but just because I think I've done enough and I want to focus on just kind of like getting the market generally right,

not being stuck in like meme shorts and other shits that doesn't really matter at the end of the day.

Yeah, there's only so much sort of trading bandwidth that I think if you're a discretionary click trader that you have, you know?

If we were chatting like completely off the record,

which is what we kind of do on this show anyway, but if we were like completely off the record, right?

And I'd be like, hey, man, these memes fucking nuke, do you feel vindicated?

Is there like a slight ego trip type of thing?

Is there a fuck you?

I told you so,

or is it more like, oh, thank God, What's the, I guess, casual, you know, what the casual feelings that you're experiencing?

Because feel like I might, I would have been far worse than you.

Like, if I were as vocal as you were, I'd have to put up with the amount of shit that you did.

I'm pretty sure I would, you know, bite the forbidden fruit, so to speak, and just go off the deep end on some mega maniacal.

narcissistic self-aggrandizing rants but you've seen pretty, you've seen it pretty tepid throughout this whole thing so yeah no main character intentions I'm guessing.

No I mean at the end of the day like people are losing money right and so it's a little bit in poor poor taste I think to go too hard even

even though they've kind of like just went off the rails towards me.

But people are losing money,

so just like,

okay, I will say something because like I said, this time was quite extreme, but I don't need to constantly down some of the graves.

But I think that that proves why the asymmetry of being,

you know, that makes obvious the asymmetry of being bearish on like social media trading.

Because if you're wrong, you know, you'll just get fucked forever basically.

But if you're right, you can't even properly celebrate, because no one's in a celebratory mood, you know, like everyone's kind of in the shit.

Whereas it seems completely reversed on the bullish side.

Like if you're right, you're an absolute hero oracle.

If you're wrong, well, everyone's kind of jointly suffering and you're on the same side as them.

So there's sort of camaraderie in the pain type of thing.

So bull post is the Twitter lesson there.

I'm that's in the Twitter engagement course that you said you were building last week.

So you can add a chapter on that specifically.

Yeah, I mean, it is how it is, like that's how it is.

It really pay.

Not even in the,

like, it just generally isn't worth it because, yeah, I think if you're wrong, you put people that

like something,

like, if people listen to you and you're I mean, they like something and they're not going to be in position and they're just going to like

completely go insane.

And you said, if you're right, it doesn't really.

It doesn't really have anyone celebrating, and you cannot either.

That's why usually I think the best thing to do is just do it quietly,

but I feel like that's a little bit of a shitty thing to do, like to me at least.

When I have strong feelings that people are going to get wrecked, I try to at least be a little bit vocal about it.

But yeah, it is not like if that's not a trade that is worth taking for anyone out there.

Yeah, thank you Yeah, it doesn't really just really pay also.

I know if you agree But in my mind there's always part of what makes that difference between being bearish wrong versus bullish wrong is that it's much

easier to be wrong on a long and try again then it is to be wrong on a short and rebuy and

Even though it shouldn't be, just like purely psychologically, I think that there's like a blocker that comes up with most people.

Whereas like,

oh, I bought too early, whatever, this is where I buy in, and it's like an automatic process, you don't really think much about it.

It's like, well, you know, roll the dice another time.

Whereas if you were bearish,

and especially if you had like a good position on or whatever else,

and you get blown out,

and you have to buy those same bags back at a higher price,

I feel like that's,

that feels like,

like emotional shit but it feels kind of more humbling and both humbling and

humiliating at the same time so I feel like in terms of like regaining exposure

if someone led you to the massacre on the long side you can come back

from that because you know buying at a lower prices more straightforward whereas if

someone you know gave you if you follow someone's idea on the short side,

dump your bags and then you get blown out and have to buy them back higher.

I feel like that's not as easy slash intuitive and there's a lot more reluctance around that.

Maybe in the comments can let us know if that's their experience.

I know that's my experience for sure.

And some ego comes into it, you know?

Like I sold this thing and do I really want to buy it back at a higher price?

exit is supposed to mean something.

Like this shit doesn't belong in trading,

but kind of creeps up, especially if you're dealing with, you know, your cyclical portfolio or spot or whatever else.

Yeah, I agree.

That's kind of obvious, I have to say feelings.

So final question before we start the show, is the classic jokers.

So you were posting about like macro-top and memes-a-dun,

et cetera,

it's part of the interesting sentiment shift among even the meme guys,

it's essentially been that,

well yeah,

it's obviously bearish,

but like whatever,

A, I don't care at this point, B, we're still like macro early for the cycle and therefore I'm going to get bailed out is just a slightly

draw down than I expected, right?

But first of all,

that's already worthy of criticism because it's the same form of goal post shifting that you criticized last week,

which is to say that,

oh, well, people who all in altcoins and then when altcoins are down like 50%, they look at BTC and say, why you panicking?

It's only down 2%.

Well, it's like, that's not the point and it doesn't affect you, the BTC is down 2%.

You're not down 2%, you're down 50%.

Right?

And feel like to some extent that logic also applies to people who kind of throw in the towel.

And say that yeah,

I got massacred on my memes But before these non meme reasons buy some magic by meme coins later will be okay

And I'm suddenly fine with this drawdown even though two weeks ago

I was shouting to everyone who was you know who even entertained the idea of memes going down in the first place

That though there seems to be some sort of parallel there.

So with all of that in mind When with your bearish meme call I guess not the trade itself that's been mostly closed out as well discussed

But like the general you know macro time

Do you think it's like a cyclical type of top that this shit is done and is not setting

new highs or is it more of a I guess cyclical rotation type of thing where this shit's gonna take a while,

it's gonna consolidate, there'll be a bigger wipeout, but eventually it'll go back up.

How topish is the top call essentially?

On the muse or on the market?

Let's do memes, yeah.

Yeah, because memes and market and like just generally is very different, I think.

I hope so, man.

Because I think a lot of the memes,

maybe not the ones that I've, like for example, I've been bashing with and I've the one that I've been most actively shooting.

But that's actually quite liquid and, is traded on a bunch of exchanges, right?

So like it's not going to disappear all of a sudden.

And I think there's going to be quite a sizable bounce on with eventually where people think it's back.

But I think there's a good chance that the top four whiffs in and that that's going to stay for a while.

If not forever,

I don't know,

but I could see the top B in for a while,

at least, on with, I don't think you're going to see with trade, like at all time highs.

in the next six months.

And I don't think,

like I even think that if Bitcoin goes up,

right, and breaks the range, I think Bitcoin would have to trade at 100k ish for with to be above its all time high again.

So, like I'm, I think a lot of these coins.

Which I enormously wrecked and I've seen this before and I mean you've seen this before we've all seen this before that like the people that have been around for a while like when these coins

get so wrecked you suddenly have like a large large backholder club basically and And to pump that coin,

you have to put so much more money in now than before,

because all these bag holes have actually been shown that they can lose money in these positions.

And they're going to be so fucking happy to close out at previous prices.

Like look at their portfolio and they were like, oh, I had $1 million in width.

Now it's worth like $500k.

The moment it's back at 700, I'm going to cash out, right?

Like that's, that's just how it works for a of people.

So you have, like you have resistance along the way now that you didn't have before.

So I think like a lot of these coins and a lot of just generally all coins as well,

but like just the memes are the more obvious ones because those are the ones that I actually traded this cycle.

Like other shit just hasn't been.

I think they're, even if Bitcoin goes up.

But obviously,

if Bitcoin goes up,

like said,

if goes up and breaks the range to the upside and goes to 100k,

there's probably going to be a new all-time high for the ones like Pepe.

I would be surprised if not.

like surprisingly strong like it's not surprising to me because it's a meme on

ETH rather than Solana and I think people are gonna just pivot from Solana to to Yves,

that's why I said I wouldn't show a Pepe ever, but I would show it with.

And I've been like,

shooting basically with and longing Pepe,

like on and off basically,

just because I think the memes on Yves or like at least that one meme is gonna steal the better way.

And I think that's gonna continue largely a lot of these, the memes that CTS shilled, right?

Like answer memes,

like the ones that are not on exchanges,

I don't think they're gonna come back the ones that are down like 90%, like those I think are dead.

They might have like two X's,

three X's,

but I don't think they're going to get close to where they were before and Like I said,

they're more liquid ones that you actually have markets for they might But I think they're gonna have to struggle a lot in the next few months to actually Well,

it's more of like almost like a bailout situation as it has.

Oh, yeah It's in mineral many points in the cycle, right?

Especially when we discuss it privately, but also on the show It was the idea that dude.

There's a lot of vapor-wairy frothy dog shit,

but it's actually got lifted out by When e to you remember the days when ETF flows actually had a nice impact on price those were

fun And I think that just bought us a lot of breathing room and sort of bailed really frothy altcoin markets out of what should have been

Big nukes because I mean BTC would just march on

anything because everything's so correlated but we've really seen that

stressed over the last couple of months especially the last month where the

headline ETF numbers were good but the price wasn't fucking doing anything and

then you start the sort of hindsight mental gymnastics like oh it's you know

traders putting on the basis trade and that's a CME open interest and all this type of stuff is a Like guys,

if you have to start doing that level of analysis, that's actually a bad thing.

Because it's like the obvious market effect that was carrying you is like no longer working per se.

And we had a sort of weak pulse so far on the each side of things.

where the ETF consolidation broke down and even now is we're getting you know SEC

stop their consensus lawsuit or some shit and we're getting the S1 spot the ETF

forms filings amendments whatever and it's it still looks a bit ropy you know so

I want to start looking at some charts now if that's okay with you I know you

love the talking bit done especially like 10 people Yep.

So I've got BTC monthly up.

I was thinking about how to introduce this right before we went live.

And to me it was quite funny because it feels like a broken record at this point.

Like as long as it's not, you know, as long as it's not below 58k, it still looks fine.

But that's like the fourth month in a row of saying that.

So like even if that's true, where fuck is it not going up?

Is there a certain point?

for you at least in which the monthly time frame turns bearish pre 58k breakdown like

if it consolidates for another month you're like okay this is taking too long or would

you rather just have a fucking line in the sand and say you know there might be other

time frames to bear tarred but the monthly is No,

I think, I mean, you can bet other things, but the monthly, like, it's just a consolidation between resistance and support.

It's kind of shitty.

It's a tenant, bro, study study, maybe.

You argue that.

Yeah, you Like, consolidation post-breaker, right?

Yeah.

I it's hard to make the bearish case on the monthly.

and that's just a decent chart.

It's not great because generally when you have breakouts and all-time high breakouts and they don't fucking move, that's a little bit concerning.

This is like the longest one by far.

Yeah, and people keep making like comparison to like previous times.

Like they're like, oh, we are exactly here in the cycle.

And then they point towards like the one week red candle.

Yeah, the September of 2020 monthly red candle.

They're like, we are exactly here.

And I'm like, dude, what the fuck?

You cannot compare these.

It's very, very different.

We haven't traded like this before.

Not to my knowledge anyway, like not since I've been around.

Yeah, no, we haven't.

And so I mean, we are.

time.

It's funny because we're kind of like, I would argue we're going through a bear market right now.

Just isn't participating.

It's just the old coins, which is a good thing, technically speaking, right?

Like get rid of all the risk, all of the baggage of the old coins, while Bitcoin is holding up like that.

I'm not as aggressively bearish Bitcoin as I've been

Before in this range right like I was like thinking like hey

This is just breed doesn't look that good and I still think it doesn't look that good I'm on the lower time frames,

but just generally like the the all coin risk that we've taken off Has kind of made it a little bit more bearable on

On just general the market like sad part is no it makes no fucking difference because no one holds bcc in the first place right

It's like everyone's mostly holding old that's why When you see that goal post shift between old sort of yeah,

altcoins and BTC It's sort of bittersweet because you can't make reference to Bitcoin

If you're all if you're just holding altcoins and even

here It's like well BTC is holding up and we're just shedding the riskier parts of the market

It's like well the market is the riskier parts of the market No one is holding BTC at this point and you know,

there's also a lot of like participants overweight, and a bunch of other stuff.

It's very kind of both iconic and ironic and crypto.

You look at the strongest performing thing and it's often the most under-owned, at least on the CT side of things.

Yeah, I mean that is very true.

You were bull posting the weekly timeframe though, right?

So anyone who's not happy with your altcoin shorts or that you were somewhat vindicated on the meme coin front,

you sort of pulled this white rabbit out of your magician's hat as far as weekly sport

on BTC and it's the 62 63k-ish cluster, right?

Yeah, I think it's the last line of defense basically.

It's basically like, I think the 60K support level that we have on the weekly and on the daily is shit.

Oh, that's such a shame.

You've always been like one of the loudest proponents of this being, you know, 60K being a really strong support.

I mean, I'm disappointed you've changed your mind.

The funny thing is like, I was actually a fan of 60K for quite a while.

It's just like, it tested it too many times.

And now we've tested it so many times that I just actually think it's shit.

not worth not worth dealing with anyway yeah this is basically the last line of

defense before we would retest 60k and I think 60k would just go honestly like I think 60K would just roll over.

Like maybe you get one daily green and people get like super excited,

but then the next day or two or maybe the week after,

I think it would just colossely just break down and fuck people over massively.

So yeah, that's kind of like where we are right now and you should never underestimate the last support.

There's something that I've said before just because that's where all the activity is gonna be around.

And I think that's a decent spot to be somewhat bullish.

The with it is that the daily is just not good, like the daily is just very bearish.

So you're kind of in this situation where you are at weekly support, but the daily is bearish.

So you have to either wait for the daily to flip bullish to.

You have to buy the bullet and buy the weekly and just hope that the daily is gonna go your way Yeah,

but that's fucking scary,

especially with how the market is set up right now I would say and this is just me observing the market

There's very little interest right now,

like the market's just floating around and even like with the old coins to like usually you have like an old coin sector that has a lot of attention and that does well,

even during drawdowns.

Right now we have none of that right like it's just Bitcoin and it's just if like he's been outperforming lately a little bit.

but those are the only two, right?

I people are going to be in the comments and be like,

oh, my shit coin that has 2 million market cap has been outperforming what the fuck are you talking about?

But that's not what this is about.

Like the larger coins and just general the market direction has been.

On the altcoins down and on Bitcoin just very very lethargic right like I mean we went to 70k like a million times and

No one was ready to buy it and now which is kind of if you look on the daytime frame on on Bitcoin

It's just been like Like, look at these candles.

It's like that meme downtrend line I sent you on WhatsApp.

Yeah.

Yeah, it's literally just like, and it looks illiquid too, right?

Look at this, like, look at it and it just looks illiquid, like, which is fucking wild.

We're trading at 60, 70K.

It's a big market now, but it just looks like, I mean, like illiquid piece of shit, basically.

And, um...

Yeah, that needs to stop, and it needs to, in my opinion, reclaim 65k on the daily time

frame before you can make good bullish arguments.

Is the cluster, basically?

That is...

I mean you can oh you've got it from the low of 2nd of April or some shit 16th of March 17th of March

But you can also make it.

Yeah, you can also just take the cluster from the third of April like that low I think that's also decent enough.

Oh, you want to make less the bottom.

It's all the same shit.

Yeah, yeah It's all the same.

Yeah And you want to be above there,

I think, and then you can make the weekly argument, you can make the daily argument, like I said, the monthly isn't that bad.

And this is why I'm not as aggressively bearish anymore as I was, because now you have at least a few arguments.

It's just the market is really trading shit, so those arguments are not that strong.

But that's why I closed a bunch of my trades.

even though like I think I would have been better off just being like hedging it with like an e-flong

but I was just like I've had enough like I've been trading actively like I've not been trading

in a long time like it's been actually quite fun getting back into the very active trading

and I was like give had enough I usually prefer to swing trades.

But yeah,

I closed Solana,

I closed with,

I've had a of other positions going at the same time to close most of those two and now Like I have I have a little bit of a Bitcoin short,

but nothing nothing Aggressive and something that is gonna be closed out probably today Not entirely sure about it.

I don't want to spend your weekend staring at it No, I don't But entirely sure what I'm gonna do with that basically.

I generally look at this like from a TA standpoint It just looks like a liquid plated chop and that's bad right like that's fucking bad when you

bleed and chop into the most important support levels on the chart.

We've talked about this on each before when it was bleeding out non-stop.

And It just stayed the fuck away if you can from this price action because it's going to take all your money.

And that's what...

Yeah, yeah.

The slow drift down.

And that's kind of what's happening now, I think.

Like people are going to get chopped the fuck up.

One thing that I want to mention is that like whenever,

or quince nuke, like whiffs down like 60% or something and keeps on going down like 10% every single day.

It's...

Irrationally bearish on things that are not actually going down,

which is really fucking funny when you think about it But they see with nuke and then they're like,

okay This Bitcoin price range has to result in downside because with this nuking because the market is bearish like they they

get heavily influenced by or corn price action and at the end of the day,

that's not necessarily how the market works like Bitcoin can do well while or coins nuke and if you aggressively position your

on something that you don't have a bearish thesis on just because something else is dumping.

There's a good chance that you just get fucked.

And I think that's kind of what's happening right now in the last few hours.

I posted about this where I was like, people are going to aggressively short Bitcoin, just because they're bearish old coins.

And this is a stupid thing to do with a bearish old coins, right?

Like was plenty of time to short these.

And generally like the old coins, like if you bearish something, be bearish that and don't just overcome.

trying to be smart about it.

And yeah, that's where I think the current bounce is from.

Like the day he has a little bit of wick.

And if that materializes into something stronger, that'd be quite nice, like about 65%.

Then you have,

like I said,

the setups on the weekly and on the daily and on the monthly and then maybe you can even trade on the bullish side of things for once.

If not, I'm just going to assume that this just continues to roll over the moment it has liquidated to people that are aggressively shorting.

And you're not putting your net worth on 60k holding, I'm guessing, no, I would not buy the dip at 60k.

I buy.

Like I'm down to like aggressively and I think that's quite aggressive,

like if you zoom out a little bit,

like a 50-52, I think that's quite an aggressive buy after a range like this breaks down, right?

Like if this breaks down, like both ways really, like if this breaks up, let's talk about that first.

enough stun Europe.

Yeah, but if it breaks up, right, like let's be optimistic for second.

Let's say the bears get invalidated, this moves above 65.2 and just basically reverses the slow bleed somehow.

and then goes to 70k,

70k is shit resistance right in my opinion same as 60k like you go back there i wouldn't want to bet or not and then would you really want to be shooting like at 75 you're like

oh yeah this range broke out but now it's gonna go down i don't think so i think that's fucking

stupid right like you wouldn't want to be bearish at 75 But you can be bearish in 80,

85 to 100 maybe, but like earlier than that, I think seems ill-advised just generally like there's a huge range.

You would expect it to run a while.

But same is true to the downside, right?

Like look at this thing, we are almost back at range low.

Like we're actually quite close.

If this breaks through the downside, we've just had the free to four months long range.

And the moment it breaks through the downside, you're going to have to assume that it's a distribution range, right?

Like people fucking dumping on your head.

And then would you really?

buying the first support at that point, which would be 52k, in my opinion is actually quite aggressive.

That's overly bullish just for the sake of it, and I'm actually down for it.

If I was shooting, and I don't know what I'm going to do, like I said, I'm just kind of like taking risk off.

But like if it was shorting, like 52K would be the target.

And then I would try to re-short on the bounds, basically.

But I think at that point, I'm probably just going to look at the long side.

I'm not necessarily in the shorting business.

But that is like a three months range and that's the first support you would kind of expect that that's just going to be good for a bounce and then you're actually going to like at

least spend some time there,

right, even if it's bullish and even if it you'd expect price to kind of like go around move around 52k.

just to kind of clarify whenever we look at these markets and I'm like I always

give the bulls the benefit of the doubt right and I don't give the best benefit

of the doubt even though like to other people it might sound different

it's actually very much not the case like I'm not fair to both sides I'm always on

the bullish side of things more so than on the bearish side of things and for

good reason right as we've discussed the previous this goes up yeah yeah yeah

how much you can make as a bull versus a bear also the fact that we got

15k and like a very short period of time, you know, kind of shows you where the asymmetry is at.

Yeah.

The argument.

If I've understood correctly during the course of this consolidation is some version of long,

you know, the great the duration the consolidation The larger the sort of implied magnitude of the move So what's the consolidation ends?

You want to be picking up pennies in front of the steam roller by trading the support That's way too close below the range of a brakes or the resistance that's way too close to the

range for breaks that way You know give it some space and basically for consolidation this move this long actually breaks out

Just get the fuck out the way and let it breathe a little bit.

Don't be too cute You know, it reminds me of the classic example of 6k.

We always go back to it.

go to it.

I think we're trapped there, like, mentally, psychologically.

We never left it.

We never left and never recovered, but that's like such a good example of like so many different lessons.

But the main one was like sentiment around that time when BTC was at 6k before it went to fucking 3k,

and you and I 0 to 4.8 and shout ourselves,

you know,

the good old days,

yep, um, the sentiment at the time was like yeah, okay 6k looks dog shit and bear in mind we've spent like a fucking year there at that point

Depending on how you measure,

but it's yeah,

6k is bearish, but like if it breaks down We'll just like quick spike, you know, the old swipe a rue at 5.6.

Maybe five 5.4 and then we go straight back and make an all time high and spoiler warning that

is not exactly what happened so like being on the wrong side of a long consolidation breaking

out is probably one of the most expensive lessons that you'll ever incur which is why

it's always like a very boring mantra but you either try

trade the support slash resistance some way away from the range that's breaking or you

just step the fuck out completely and wait for the range to be reclaimed and gamble them

when you have some sort of validation but like early knife catching a shift from such a massive balanced period of trading is like not.

You know, it's not for everyone, so to speak.

I think there is a trait there.

The early knife catching, because we both bought, and we both were immediately in deep profit, if I remember correctly.

I'm not entirely sure where you bought, but I think it was pretty much the same time as I did back then.

And I still remember, like, I bought on the day.

and then it bounced on that day like 10-15%

or something back then and then the next day I just got completely and utterly fucked right yeah right I've just found it now Like,

I still remember this, I watch I'll be honest, but there's a green candle there somewhere, you know?

Oh, yeah, but I mean, look at it, it's 20th November of 2018 at Daily Candle.

Like, I bought really good on that wig down, and then, like, it bounced, like, 10, 15%, whatever, and I was like, I'm a fucking genius.

And then it nuked again, and I was like, fuck.

And then it bounced again.

And then I was like, oh, shit, I'm a genius.

So there's trades there, right?

When it completely nukes, you get these liquid wicks that sometimes you can take advantage of.

But then you shouldn't be holding those unless you're really ready to give everything back, like all that profit from that entry.

Because usually you have some time,

it nukes and then it sets a low with a wick like that and then it kind of goes back in that area

and just hangs out for a few days, two or a few weeks and then it goes, right?

So if you get that wick you can usually close out and then it's going to kind of gravitate back towards that wick

and then you can just like if you really want to have that position you can get back in it in

like two or three weeks afterwards.

Yeah, the old wick refill strategy?

Yeah, and that usually takes some time.

I'm usually too impatient.

I usually buy these ginormous down wicks and I'm like fuck it, this is deep enough.

but like just straight up usually like at 16k for example I still remember when

when we had the whole FDX implosion like I bought

And then it bounced big time and that was the first time where it's like I'm actually not gonna be done this time around because I bought like 16

And then it bounced and I actually sold into that daily bounce like that massive green candle

And then I just report where bought the first time around.

Yeah, like what the what's the point of just paying trading fees, right?

Yeah, I mean just like in general just sitting there it's harder like holding that position when it comes back

It's easy to buy when everything is to me.

I look at this and I'm like, oh, this is discounted.

I'm buying it.

But then it gets hard when it gets retested.

Like, there's some human psychology shit.

Dude, I'm the complete opposite.

Isn't that interesting?

Yeah, like I'll do some business on the initial like crunch

nuke But once I see that wick and that bounce it just gives me like a very clear thing to target essentially where I'm like,

okay Well,

whatever that that was the nuke or it wasn't the new could gives a fuck this thing is probably gonna get refilled And there's like a very high probability set up there and the sentiment around

the refill is gonna be totally dog-shipped because people think Oh,

well, here go, you know, the bounce is done and they're gonna be looking to like sell into the breakdown a of the that's like a good buy set up.

Oh yeah, I that one I like, that one I like, but if I'm in position already, like let's say I got that nuke.

Oh, yo, fuck that dude.

Like that's what I'm talking about.

Yeah, yeah, no.

Because it's the same, right?

Like I bought like 16K, it bounces, I just hold, it comes back to 16K, right?

right oh my god that fucking hurts like it's horrendous to sit through even though like that setup is still not invalidated,

nothing changed at the end of the day,

but just having price revisit like that area where you thought that you were a genius for buying.

It's very disrespectful, to be honest.

Yeah, I fucking hate it.

Like who the fuck are you to be retesting my entry,

you I mean,

there's nothing I hate more than like when I get a buy and I'm like,

this was such a chat buy and then someone else gets quite cheap.

I'm like, fuck you.

Yeah, that's exactly what trading is.

There's just shadow boxing at counter parties, you know?

Exactly, like just like, you fucker.

You Just a bunch I project.

I worked so hard.

It's so hard.

And you just come in here, you take it for free, it's fair.

How dare you, sir.

Where were you during the first week?

You low volume retest pussy.

This is why I know when it nukes, right?

Like, example, if we get that 50k nuke, I think that it's going to be a wick into 50.

I'm going to try to do some business there if the market shapes up that way,

and then I'm going to close today after and re-establish a week or two or three weeks after.

and like if 50k holds and I'm like, oh fuck yeah, let me just re-buy that.

It's it up into two trades, right?

One the nuke reaction one to two day turnaround and the second one is, is this like a medium term bottom type of trick?

Exactly, because I mean you don't really know.

You don't know.

And usually that like, when it nukes and it gives you a big wick, like people are ready to buy it.

stick around, and then there's actually no follow through, you get completely carried out.

I the Sigma version of the setup on is you buy the nuke and then you add on the wick refill retest, you know.

Oh, yeah.

But that is...

And then if you're wrong, you just delete your Twitter account because you have their money.

That's how it goes.

thing is scary.

I think anyone that's been around trading for a while, whenever you add, when it comes back to your level, that is fucking terrifying.

I'm okay.

For example, Solana on the way down.

I actually like every single green daily candle on the way down from 170 I actually added to my position because I was like this is just stupid like why the fuck is anyone buying this

so every single green daily candle that you're in Solana I was actually selling into And then that's fine by me, right?

Because technically, the further Lord, it went, the more, like, the more it showed me that this is actually bearish, it's actually gonna go down.

But if that was like, basically, if it came back to 170, I wouldn't have done any of that, right?

So, like, because I think, like, sometimes,

It's just like do you stop being too stubborn like and start adding size to pretty much the same setup just because right because nothing's changed like if it comes back to your level like.

Why do you have more confidence in that level now you should have less confidence because it's back at that level.

my opinion.

So like,

it's a little bit generally,

it's like adding there, like taking a new trade, because you're like, Oh, yeah, this level is still like, it's a good trade, fair enough.

But adding, I don't know why I would, because like I said, technically, the level is weaker now.

So I should have either had more size the first time around.

Or just very much don't add, because technically, I'm in a worse position now than I was the first.

Yeah, like what is the evidence fire retest that the prob you know the expectancy of the setup increased and not the time

They just isn't any so you either.

Yeah, as said you either didn't risk enough initially or what the fuck you're doing?

Exceeding your risk parameters if there's no kind of new evidence in your favor.

That's totally reasonable To bring us back from trading related rants and tangents to be clear on the BTC from

64 is like the real do or die,

you know,

if the BTC number is going to stay at six something,

you know, if it's going to start with a six kind of has to come from this weekly support.

If not, no faith in 60 K in terms of trans, you know, making a trade out of that weekly structure.

As always, yeah.

two options.

One is better entry, less certainty.

One is worse entry, arguably more certainty.

The version is you basically try to buy as close to that weekly level as you can.

And then your hope is that the daily timeframe gets morphed into something positive.

Like if the weekly bounce does its job, the daily shouldn't be an obstacle, right?

So you're sacrificing.

daily certainty for a better weekly entry and the other side of that coin is you don't make

a bet on the weekly and you let the daily timeframe pave the way and suggest whether

the weekly is going to hold by getting back above what is it like 65 and change 65.1 65.3

whatever daily cluster range layer version you prefer and then the upside

of that trade is that if the weekly fails you don't lose any money the downside is you might have to

well by definition you'll get a worse entry and you'll have to chase it because you didn't

step up on the weekly level but waited for more confirmation which is our favorite word in in this entire youtube channel.

Yep.

Is that a fair summary?

Yeah, perfect.

Fantastic.

dude I've just been looking at like the one hour and the four hour like the four

hour especially I'm like what the fuck is this downtrend you know you just

draw like a straight line through this bitch yeah it'd be really nice if it

does I mean this price actually we haven't seen this pattern since I don't

know man this this feels like a 2017 maybe 2020 type of pattern which is just

like downwards drift and then gets wiped out in like two days you know like goes

down for two months and then gets wiped out in two days with a reversal maybe

that's a bit hopeful in general these drifts have been a bit sticky but that's

just Bullshit commentary and doesn't contribute to the useful trade idea whatsoever.

I missed those days like XRP used to be Vcoin for that, right?

Yeah, it was nothing for months like if you just bleed for months and then two days would wipe out the entire downtrend

It'd be amazing.

Yeah, like it would be up a hundred percent on one day and you're like fuck down And then you sell and it just bleeds out for the next fucking ten months

And over and over and again, if we do that, yeah.

need to create nostalgia around up, where we just go through these like 2017, 2018, 2019 trading anecdotes.

I think that'd be so funny.

but also depressing.

So, hey, remember when you had X amount of BTC?

Okay, that's BTC.

Hopefully, this is helpful.

As always, leave us a like, leave us a comment, you know, give us engagement.

We read all the comments and appreciate people who stick around and listen.

To circle back, ETH BTC is holding up and doing things done.

In the past,

you developed a bit of a meme your reputation for like,

you know, if everything in the world is going well, but there's a green candle on ETH BTC, you're like mega-bearing.

still the same.

Tell us, tell us why and what you think of EPC as well.

I think if directly competes with Bitcoin and Bitcoin really doesn't like being competed in that way.

And I think that's basically why the moment you have each strength,

what happens is people rotate out of Bitcoin into each

and then you get Bitcoin weakness and people see Bitcoin weakness and then the market sells off, right?

Like a little bit of an odd one because it's not the same with all coins, right?

The all-coin traders are their own breed but the Bitcoin and each traders like because both of

these are so liquid and both of these are big markets.

It's they kind of share like they're the same.

Obviously there's Bitcoin Maxis and ETH Maxis,

but just generally, like if you have an interesting ETH market, you're going to lose bid on Bitcoin and opposite.

That's why I've been saying, and I was laughed at for this when we got the ETH and ETF news.

I was like, this is not necessarily good for the market as a whole.

It's just good for ETH.

And I mean, that's what's been happening, right?

Like, I mean, fucking, all coins are down, like, what?

Like, 80%.

Like, between, like, 15% to 80%.

And it's because people are like rotating their money out of the old coins into ETH and Bitcoin's been struggling to and I think it's also good like one of the reasons is because people are

not like people that would otherwise be buying Bitcoin buying ETH.

And the problem is that if you don't have enough people buying Bitcoin, the general market tends to go down.

So we're in this weird hellish hells coin.

where every time you get positions on ETH,

it's short, like it's, it's very, very for a very short amount of time because basically the entire market rugs afterwards.

And I mean, I wouldn't, like, I cannot blame anyone for it, right?

Like, if I see ETH, like fuck yeah am I gonna sell my Bitcoin and buy ETH right like that's just the most straightforward

thing to do it's not like these are like completely like it's not like you're buying like a

shitcoin that is gonna go down 99%

like it's probably gonna stick around so it's like it's not necessarily much riskier and the upside can be quite great um

therefore like I'm doing the same thing but that's kind of what's been what's been

holding ETH back in the market as a whole it's just we don't have enough

people to buy both things it's always just one There's a few exceptions when the market is really like when everything's really cheap,

but just generally when the market is heated and market caps are high and if goes up,

usually it's not enough to hold everything up and then we get this kind of shit price action.

So you're never allowed to buy ETH is all I'm hearing.

Oh, I mean, I want to buy like I'm gonna Like I think buying ETH before these like when I get the tail end of the cycle or just generally like when when everything is gigalow

Right like we had in in 2021 or whatever like when prices are really low is a really good thing to you

Like that's you're gonna make a bunch of money

But when the the cycles already been going for a while and everything's hot

That if I might be the end of the cycle not the beginning I mean, it's been very disappointing this cycle in general, right?

The basic assumption was crypto go up BTC go up if go up eth outperform voila you've made it type of thing

But it's been so Bitcoin centric and then you know the barbell portfolio meme the if was the perfect mid-width trap

And you talked about that fucking eight months ago or some shit probably yes

That was one of the best calls I made like the mean call is gonna be it's gonna be the one that's remembered Right,

but I think that was better like that.

Yeah, that was the That was really good, but no one really gave a fuck.

Like, people are holding ETH for so long, and then they've only recently really started kind of like rotating out of it.

And they rotated from ETH into meme coins, right?

Which is why I think so many people are fucking upset.

Fair enough.

Because now you get like an ETH F, but you just rotate it into meme coin, you're down 50%.

Like, I'm not gonna, like, fuck am I gonna rotate out of that meme coin into ETH again?

Yeah, and that drives you to more speculative stuff anyway, right?

Yeah, you've lost half your money, exactly.

You're like, yo, fuck this, I'm not gonna buy ETH, which only go up, like, whatever, X.

I'm gonna go deeper in the trenches, and that's a weird reinforcing cycle.

That said, do think the ETH ETF...

It's still on the table like sort of you know BTC got in the spot ETF and went up a lot that either is getting a spot

ETF I was gonna go up a lot therefore by if you think that's dead

You think there's like a time component to it you think it entirely depends on the actual flows we get you know

What what's the status of that?

Free money traders it was advertised on Twitter.

Yeah, I don't know like it's a really really difficult one I think it makes sense to be bullish each relative to other things

but I'm not entirely sure if the market is going to go up, if it's going to go up.

Like just don't know.

So you might lose less money in a relative sense, but that's the most you can offer me.

I think generally like Bitcoin and Eve are the ones that you want to be trading until further notice.

I think that's just how it is on the bullish side of things.

If you want to short stuff, I think there's a bunch of memes, not memes.

It's like overly Freudian slept there,

yeah, I just generally think like a lot of this shit is just complete and utter vapor and people are realizing now I think that's one thing that this meme cycle did is just eroded all

belief in crypto from like even the most hardened people I've seen a lot of like

very strong proponents for crypto kind of throw in the towel this cycle for the first time i've seen that i was like paid cynicism and disillusionment for sure yeah yeah like people fucking hate crypto now

and it's not like like the retail hates it anyway from like just the past crimes our industry has

committed right and i mean fair enough want for that,

like you were told that that nano was like the the thing of the future and then suddenly it's down 99.9%

Obviously, you're going to hate that space, right?

But at this time around,

it's not only the people that, like, lost money before, just generally hate it because they hate it, because they didn't buy it.

It's also just people in crypto that fucking hate it now.

Like I've seen a lot of people.

And the sentiment generally is quite negative.

just like the hope is very much not there, even though prices are still very high, which is the first time that I've seen that.

Like usually you deepen the bear market and then people start asking these questions.

This time around we were still like, like we were overheating on the memes.

We were like just generally like sending it everywhere and people started asking these questions already.

And it's only gotten worse since.

Which is not necessarily like a bullish or bearish commentary,

it's just me saying like the space has lost a lot of believers in the space and gained a lot of people believing in pumping dumps.

Great.

Yeah.

I guess it's a form of tearing off the band.

I mean, every cycle brings different forms of disillusionment, but it all sort of stems from losing your money.

It's just this happened to be a particularly weird one,

where as a whole,

things kind of went up,

but the dispersion was so high,

and I'm speaking in the past hands of it's fucking over permanently,

but just in general,

the dispersion has been so high,

and the returns have been sort of sequestered to so few assets relative to previous bull markets,

where you could hold anything on whatever exchange to trade on,

and you'll be fine,

but it's a weird scenario where you're getting insane disillusionment,

even though the market, however you describe that, has been pretty good, and the scary part hasn't even gone down that much.

No, I know.

at 64?

Yes, I mean, we're not we're doing the thing that we criticized whatever Twitter for doing, which is jumping from old coins to Bitcoin.

But when we primarily trade BTC and Ethan,

we're boomers in this, but to me that is still the market, you know, I yes, I agree.

But I think that makes us

somewhat It risks making us somewhat out of tune because realistically if you're trying to get a sense of like the market

You want to get a sense of positioning inflows, right?

And if meme coins and Solana, etc.

are in positioning inflows, then they at least for that period are a better proxy for the market, then BTC and ETH.

The problem is people take that to an extreme,

as we've seen literally every single cycle,

and this is no exception,

and we have this show and discuss the same fucking thing,

that if you choose to ignore BTC and ETH,

you do it at your own peril,

because those are like the big boys which decide the really,

really high-tech But people get too deep in the meme coin and altcoin trenches and then think what the fuck they care about BTC

It's like up 2%

down 2%

whatever I didn't give a shit I'm up like 10,000%

on my altcoins And then when BTC actually fucking moves and takes the entire market with it

There's a rough lesson to be learned there so that's a bit of rambling nonsense again,

but I think in general It's good to be aware

of sort of BTC in each should always be at the forefront of your mind because they're so big and so important and the large moves

Happen on those and then if you want a more accurate short to medium-term proxy for positioning and flows and trends,

etc You kind of have to be more trench oriented and looking at the ecosystems and even just the high cap

and the high caps and the chains with the most volume and the most speculation, etc.

I think like Solana and with, for example, have been decent proxy for that, I know if you agree.

Yeah, but like that's, I mean, the interesting thing about that is that basically like the attention economy was on Solana and all those people.

And that's clearly ended, right?

I mean, the attention is still there, but price action doesn't agree.

So there's been a very, very big shift in the market, right?

And I think people are just completely ignoring it.

where like you actually have like stuff like even the big stuff on Solana Rockpool now basically like I mean

I I'm talking about the memes and everything but like the like CT for example shield that coin Bowden or whatever it's called

And I looked at the chart, and it was down like 90 to 95% ish.

That's called a bullish retest, bro.

Yeah.

And I mean, that's what the attention is, right?

So if the attention is on something that's super fucking bearish that tells you a lot about the market,

like if basically where all the eyes are is like moving the worst, I mean, that tells you quite a bit about the market.

I think just generally as like a little bit of a signal.

And I like I just don't see that come back on Solana I think and there's something we've seen before right in previous cycles like let's say the cycle is not over and we're gonna like

just kind of rotate into something else like usually you don't go back to to the prior kind of like And for example,

like, usually you wouldn't go back to Solana now, you would go back, like, you would go to either Eve, you would go to, like, something else out there that doesn't have the backholders that doesn't

have like that whole liquidity problem.

And especially that doesn't have that bad reputation now, right, because Solana has like a really, really bad reputation.

for people losing money now.

And people don't want to go on Solana and gamble there because I mean, they associate, hey, Solana is where I lose money.

And then they see someone else like trade on whatever else and make money and they're like,

oh, maybe I should try that because Solana's and so bad for me.

But this other thing.

I don't think anyone's ready for kosmos fucking meme coins so I think the strongest argument

against that is some version of like Solana Lindiness which is the same

So much of the speculation has taken place there and also additionally from just from a practical point of view so much of the

Tech that makes it easy to launch meme coins and trade shit and to partake in that type of

speculation Basically all of that tech is on Solana and the chain in terms of its architecture is

Most appropriate least out of all the ones we have for that type of

behavior So I think it's slightly harder to move away from rather than chain hopping You know for other use cases,

but I think that'd be I think that'd be a very I mean that'd be mega bearish Solano if you're right uh essentially that you know that type of speculation goes elsewhere because people

are burned.

I didn't think that super likely again simply because it's I didn't think there's any fucking competition.

I mean eth potentially but I'm not sure whether we can play this fucking salana eth ping pong so like where do you go to get scammed but if you're right and you know the

cynicism is so high and the amount of people burn is so high that the speculation fucks off from

salana um that's not my base case but if you're right I think that'd be catastrophic for I mean

for a price you know on the mental line of charge.

Yeah, look at it in a sec, but like the reason why I think it will and the reason like we're gonna get any

ETF Right and if the market doesn't fully collapse that should be bullish Eve, right?

We've seen this before with Bitcoin.

People were and I keep telling the story every single time, but I think it's important.

People were saying buy Eve because Bitcoin is getting ETF and you're just going to get one next and that's going to outperform

because of it.

And what happened was Eve went to zero, basically in comparison.

And I think we're going to be in the same situation if we bullish, right?

Like big thing, like let's say this range doesn't break down.

Let's say we get to the EFTF and If both of those things are true, right?

And think we're gonna get an EF ETF.

And I mean, there is a chance the range doesn't break down.

I think that would be like if we're just outperformed generally in comparison to a lot of other things.

And we would be in the same situation that Bitcoin was in.

Basically, you get an EF and Bitcoin solar run.

And I think then people could actually directly benefit from that by trading on,

like, on ETH, not necessarily on the base layer, you trade wherever the fuck else you want,

but basically ETH thinks because a bunch of ETH holders are going to get more and more rich, right?

And going to speculate on ETH.

Basically, the same reason why Solana did so well in the Solana meme coins was because

a bunch of Solana holders got stupidly rich when Solana ran up and then they were like,

what do I do with all of the Solana and they just started hypergambling on whatever the fuck came up, right?

And I think it would be the same with ETH.

And if we're bearish, right?

Like say the whole EVTF plays out bearishly

and we actually don't get good flows

and we get ETH ETH dumped on our heads and just generally there's not enough outside interest and it's just basically down.

I think Solana would be the worst trade to like, why would you wanna be like, that's where everyone got burned.

That's where everyone has bags.

So the market goes down, I think it's the worst place to be.

Solana, that it is.

If the market goes up, I Eve's going to be more interesting to a lot of people.

So I think that matter is going to shift to Eve, even and I mean, I'm not an Eve Maxie.

I even like Eve.

I think that using Solana is nicer than using Eve, but I don't really think that matters too much.

If there's one thing I've learned is that

the more

complicated like something is that I like that is in general a good idea I usually make more

money the more like the harder it is to get into it right like we had the whole

like when the ordinals thing came around like that was like horrendous UI like

like why the fuck would you do any business there right like it's not fun

you're going through a bunch of shit you basically terrify every step you take

and that shit went up a shitload at the start and then

moment like the infrastructure is a little bit better and like actually usable usually you start topping out like.

And like,

that's, I mean, obviously with Solana, like, we basically had that last cycle and then this cycle we, like, everything worked properly for this kind of meme cycle and everything else.

But just generally, like, I don't think you necessarily have to have, like, the nicest UI.

You have to have any of that.

You just have to have a narrative.

And as long as there's money to made,

as long as there's money to be made, people will go there, no matter how bad it is.

So, like, the argument ends up being twofold.

One the...

meme coin type speculation is a product of a sort of wealth effect that happens on a chain or in an ecosystem

Which is why I can sort of jump around and migrate and part two is that friction can actually be bullish.

Oh I mean Yes, in a way like if you have the right narrative, right?

Like so for example,

I need both essentially Yeah,

basically if there's still friction you're early if there's no friction You're not like at least in crypto like if there's gonna be some sort of sexual in your end of a right

Probably but I generally like generally something that I believe in it's like when when stuff is easier in crypto

It's usually because like a lot of people like it's gone through a lot of people's hands.

You know earlier if it's hard to do, but it has some merit, right?

Like something's just shit and you're like, oh, but this is so bad.

And Don said, like if it's bad, it's good.

It's not how it works.

You to up us down.

You have to have like a good reason to be there.

And think the EVTF would be a good reason.

And it doesn't really matter whether the ETH experience is shit or not.

But I guess those traders will be more like price and like in more insensitive to fees if they've made a bunch of money from their

spot.

Oh, yeah, right.

I mean, imagine you go to 10k, like, why do you care if you have to pay 50 or 100 dollars on the transaction?

Now, obviously, like that doesn't apply to everyone, but just like the few people that made so much money can move like the smaller stuff.

big time.

And we some of the amazing layer 2s all of which work and totally them fragment liquidity now.

So thank god the tech has progressed so much.

I mean at the end this is the dumbest thing about all of it because every time I say this

kind of stuff like people like oh you're just an ETH maxi whatever like you know that this is

like there couldn't be anything further from the truth right?

I am not a crypto maxi at all.

I just like to think about things and I can be wrong too like this is not my speciality.

I'm just Yeah,

and I'm just like kind of talking about like how I think about these things at the end of the day my bread and butter is just like hitting the buttons at the right moment.

And we dedicate exactly like 4% of the show to that.

I mean, I think that's pretty reasonable as a whole.

Yeah, I mean, the funny analogy that comes to mind when you mentioned that when something

is like really easy to use and is widespread,

you're not super ill anymore is when we started getting all these like when NFTs became liquid,

for example, that comes to mind when it became really easy to trade those.

And then when DeFi started getting like,

ooh, the DeFi index, you like across the board and it was no longer like mercenary on chain type, you know, more adventurous traders using

these protocols.

But oh, I could just be long DeFi, whatever the fuck that means through some investment product.

Like, yeah, by the time it becomes like streamline as far as you accessibility.

You NFTs is an example, DeFi is an there are a of others.

Yeah, the trade's probably progressed a little bit because that shit takes time to build, right?

So there's always going to be a lag between that thing and getting a ton of attention,

but time that she actually gets built, you're quite, you're quite far along at that point.

One thing I do want to say about that topic is that,

like, this only applies like if we're talking about Ponzi's right because at the end of the day like if you get something built on in crypto that actually like really works and it's like actually

used for something other than gambling and and actually has a use case.

This will fall apart really quickly right.

Because then like something is going to be like.

like the killer app or whatever, and it's gonna take over everything.

The problem is that's not how this market is right now.

I mean, we're moving more towards speculation stuff of anything.

Yeah, yeah.

And the thing is like with Ponzi, like if everyone's talking about a Ponzi, it's too late, right?

Like literally how I think about it.

Like when you get like everyone in, And if it is easy to get in, people will get in.

And some point you just run out of willing bias.

So like don't take this as gospel.

Like you find something that you actually think is gonna change the world in crypto.

Good luck with that.

if you do then I mean this falls apart really quickly and then you should obviously focus on whatever the fuck you found.

Yes I also you're probably wrong.

Just statistically you know.

Don I'm aware of the time.

Do want round up with a Solano overview because I think that'll encapsulate a lot of the meme takes as well.

I mean, just on the weekly timeframe.

Yeah.

So that's what I've got that that weekly level at 135 Is the weekly close going to be like a really big deal or is there something that would make you a bit more open-minded here

Like what's important as far as soul in general?

Is it just ta?

Is how other memes perform?

Is it sentiment?

Is it the fucking weekly clothes like what's your because you were trading this pretty actively And in general you've actually been pretty

You know in the trenches from a certified exchange point of view

I know that because I got that what's that message from you me like I can't believe my fucking

clothes Then it was sailor buying etc and I'm like oh, he's like Well, first of all talking to me outside of casual Friday.

This is very strange and unusual second of all this kind of like live trading commentary I'm like oh he's

like actively on it so what are the implications here of soul 135 or in

general this is something I mean you were literally selling every fucking green

candle on the daily Byron admission so yes what do you think Yeah,

I mean, just looking at the weekly timeframe, like, we had that higher 200, and then we had a lower higher than 170.

And I mean,

we talked about this on this show,

and I even on a Wednesday stream,

like I threw up like a,

like a wrist through what tool and it was like shorts at 170 stop plus 200 target like 100 right.

And that trade actually looks really good now.

Obviously, like it moved in that direction.

It is at support at 135.

But the reason why I really liked that trade is because it's basically like, it's a bet on the cycle being over.

Because, I mean, if you look to the left, it's kind of done, it's kind of done similar things before just kind of kind of completely new king.

Like you had a high at 250, and then you had a secondary higher 200, and then it's fucked off.

It's very, very similar structurally, even with the consolidation on the left side of it.

Which kind of was like...

Even if I'm wrong, the payoff, if I'm right, is massive, so it's good enough of a trade to take.

And, yeah, now it's kind of played out from 170 to 135.

It's the first support, first trouble.

I think if we close this weekly here,

we could get a little bit of upside next week, but I think it would get basically wicked and then we would go lower.

I generally think this looks like it's going to go lower.

I'd be shocked if it went higher.

I generally speaking, there's a good chance this goes to 100.

And if you want to be really bearish, I think like $70.

And the cool thing about it is that,

like, if you took the $170 trade or, like, in that area, and that that's the new validation now because that should be the complacency shoulder off the chart if you're right.

So basically, like, stop loss of break, even come up.

easy peasy.

And target is quite low down.

Basically, I think Solana is the best hedge for betting on the cycle being over for now.

Because like I said, with the whole meme coins on Solana thing and like people losing a bunch of money, I think there's a lot.

still holding like a little bit of soul,

a little bit of these memes,

not memes, and the moment they capitulate what they do is they sell into soul and then they sell their soul.

So the soul,

yeah, no, but then you know, like that's the flow basically we've gone through this before in Dude, I was just about to say like there's a sort of I don't know how to what this

effect is called It's some sort of like ecosystem complacency like if you're both like we have this is exactly with eth NFTs

Like if you're balls deep in NFTs or you know, you so In measuring everything like, oh, this is the floor price.

This is the floor price in Eve.

A lot of these motherfuckers didn't know that Eve went down fifty percent.

They were like, oh, the floor price is the same.

My are good.

And they check their fucking USD price and are in for a of a surprise.

And God forbid,

they try to sell some floors in the OpenSea era or,

you know, especially to try to sell some rares or kind of mid collection type of pieces.

You realize that, you know, you got cut in half in USD and there's no liquidity for the thing.

trying to sell and whatever number you thought you had in that ecosystem is in reality a

fraction if you tried to cash it out into something liquid and I think 100%

this is something similar applies to Solano if there's a real downturn where people are holding an amount

of money denominated in a meme coin on Solano but then there's a kind of very reflexive uh,

cascade where if soul goes down,

the liquidity on these shittas get worse,

so your fill prices and execution on,

you know,

jumping out of them costs you a lot,

and then you actually,

you're actually holding the soul,

you manage to get out of the illiquid thing on the meme coin or whatever,

already taking a haircut, and you take an extra haircut on fucking selling your...

Solana into USD or whatever else so that that's that's why I think sort of not focusing too much

Or not taking to heart the number that you see if you're mostly invested in like ecosystem coins or meme coins or a liquid stuff

Like you need to have a large discount rate I think in your head for like taxes and liquidity and are you?

gonna sell the top versus the bottom and then rotating from the ecosystem coin to

USD like dude that there's a lot of there's a lot of hoops to jump through

before you get your money yeah and that's I think that's kind of the drag on it and that is If the people come back,

like if the market goes up,

that could reverse and then I would change my tune, but for right now, I think that's kind of like the drag on Solana.

And the 135 support, it's tested too many times.

It's like Bitcoin 60K support, I don't like it.

I think we could bounce from it.

That's why I close.

I, the reason why I closed is basically I added so much on the way down that I'd like the positions I started getting out of hand and then I was like, okay, I, like if

this actually bounces a bunch, I actually just don't like it that much.

And I've also traded like way too much on this.

So I just kind of, I, I got out.

Well, if I just kept my.

would have made much less money but would have been more comfortable probably.

So maybe that's me mis-managing.

I'm not entirely sure yet.

For now I just made a bunch more money than I would have otherwise and it actually needs to go towards like 110 or something for

me to be worse off.

then I would have otherwise so aggressive compounding huh oh yeah I mean I was like

this stupid like people are being fucking done here and then I just sold into

everything I got I think we should do a bit of a deep dive on how the fuck you

compound a position you know starting size versus when to add training the

start but I think if that sounds interesting to our audience leave us a

comment and I'll pro-

Probably forget well probably but if I don't I'll pry that information out of dawn

But look all of this is very do me gloomy European 10 11 p.m..

Bear talk dawn.

Yes, so I'm gonna give I mean I closed I closed You closed okay first.

Yeah, that's good mitigating point you closed and also at the end of the day We're gonna put the dog with the

hat on the Las Vegas sphere.

I'm going to get mega ETF inflows.

And all going to go infinity.

Fuck you, monitor 25 that charge something else with.

Yeah, holy shit.

Like, I've been, it's the same story with Sol, like just with Wiff, I like just aggressively shorting this thing.

I did hedge it with Pepe Long.

It's quite hilarious because Pepe actually really doesn't look that bad.

Like, it's one of the few coins that actually doesn't look that bad.

an early, early sign that what I'm saying is happening.

Basically people are moving to ETH.

Yeah, reading CNT leaves left for sure.

Yeah, maybe, maybe I'm wrong.

I mean, Pepe, Pepe is the better meme, just even face value, like, in my opinion.

I mean, the frog doesn't have a hat, so I don't know man, so.

That's true.

But we can put a hat on the frog, I'm sure that.

Oh, someone's going to launch that meme coin now, and then when it arrives, it'll be your fault.

Oh, for frog with a hat.

I doesn't sound that bad.

Oh, fuck you.

Nah, I'm just kidding.

Don't make me in coins.

Anyway, what's the same story there?

I actually closed this.

And, I mean, honestly, I should probably kept it open.

I closed it like it broke at the range.

And then, like, below $2, I was like, kids enough.

I was like this is the same kind of story where I just like I got trading fatigue but I still

think there's like a good chance that this just keeps going and I think the better trade would have been

like the better kind of way to go about.

like I'm gonna keep this short as long as it's trading low 2.23 because I think there's a

chance like if this market does what I think it can which is bitcoin breaking down going towards let's be clear,

like going to 50k is not bearish, right?

Like that's a fucking bull market pullback.

But people are so fucking zoomed in and so in the trenches trading completely at the dog shit that I mean,

that would take Auckland's down 90%.

I mean, it'd be bearish my ability to pay my mortgage, but that is that aside.

I'm sure it's macro bullish, whatever the fuck that means.

But look,

don't care,

Don, when they come to my house, my borrowed house with hammers and I tell them, listen,

but I got liquidated, but actually, this is like a fractal macro pullback.

I didn't think they're going to listen.

speak English for folks like no but I mean like let's be real for a second right like because that's

the reality of it like sure if Bitcoin goes to six from like 60 it was at 70 let's say 70 to 50k

right like what kind of pullback is that like that is from top to bottom that would be a Trading view helped me out here.

Why does it not want to?

There we go.

It would be a 30% pullback.

Yeah, it's like soil textbook.

Yeah, I mean, we used to get 40% regularly.

So like, this is a 30% pullback.

We've pulled half of that, not even.

And overall, it's like literally like the entirety of CT is dead.

And% of crypto traders are fucked.

Which is just insane to think about.

So yeah, I think there's a world in which wealth just goes below $1.

And I'm like, I should have just, like, Could have been could have been a blue chip short Blue trip your favorite term.

Yeah, just just holding that forever.

It's a But now I was like it's enough and also like at some point a few bad like I actually started feeling bad.

Oh wow because I mean it's like it's not my fault and people claim that it is but

it's not my fault that this thing is going down it's a fucking dog with a hat that you're betting on right?

But I started feeling bad and I was like fuck it,

made enough money on this, I'm gonna concentrate on the more liquid stuff because it's not like you can get much size and whiff anyway.

So this is just more of like an ego slash ha, I'm making money, like even though it caught me a retard kind of thing.

So like I closed that too.

I think like if you generally like if you're newer trader,

smaller trader, whatever and you took with short like at like 315 or like anywhere on the way down.

The proper invalidation for that trade would be Above 2.23 and then you can just basically hold this thing.

I don't think that's necessarily like the worst in the world And then just close into the candle,

which I mean,

I think if the market continues to be weak,

it's like days away,

like you could get like a 50%

down day on with,

I think,

or like 40%

on a lot of these coins actually, like even on Solana, I could see like a 30% down day if the market.

starts going down.

Like Bitcoin goes to 60k, I could see Solana be trading at 100.

And I could,

like if Bitcoin goes to 50,

I could see Solana be trading between 50 and 70, just based on how the market set what's the fucking point?

I gave us like a bullish bailout for this show.

You dragged drag me,

but what I'm saying is that like, the really needs to go up, because otherwise it's going to get really fucking bad, I think.

So it's like we barely pulled back in the grand scheme on BTC and there's already a ton of carnage.

So if the pullback is actually material, then the carnage goes up non-linearly.

screwed.

But you also get some fucking banger trades if you have anything,

any cash lying around or anything that's not, you know, liquidation emails in your inbox.

And I still think you can like,

you know,

if happens,

you can still buy some fucking Solana and maybe a like some fraction of a meme coin just for the tail scenario that,

you know, we're actually fucking early to old coins and it's the final shakeout, et cetera.

I think if you get a wipeout, it shouldn't be like, okay.

sell the first bounce immediately I think you want to give yourself at least a chance that if it is like 30%

bull market pullback etc etc it's like one of the first opportunities to get really fucking cheap entries on dog shit that

you know is basically left any moderate, moderately high time frame trend follower, missing very clear entries on that one, you know, I agree.

And I don't want to be the Gigabear title.

Like I said, I closed my position.

So it just by definition, I'm less selfish now than I was before.

I'm just saying,

like don't discount how fucking wrecked you get if this breaks down and you're in these,

but also like, I mean, if it goes up, like fair play, then you're probably gonna make more money than you would be doing.

Yeah, listen, Nomura, weekly sport on BTC.

You said it's the best level you've ever seen.

Yes.

So it's gonna reverse and everything will be fine.

Fuck you, basically.

I mean, fair enough, like I'd be down.

It's not like I'm sitting here being like, ha, let's go.

I'm like, I'm seeing weakness.

I don't like it.

I'm saying like, there's there's calls for concern but also we're getting an EVTF in no time whatsoever.

And maybe that's just gonna like pull the market back up.

I don't fucking know if it could be Yeah,

like I said,

I think I'm just like,

I'm just coming out of like a very active trading week and then you're just like,

you're just like unreasonable and just rambling and that's kind of what I've been doing.

So I mean, that is this show.

Yeah, well this show is like unreasonable rambling from both of us and then me prying out like one bit of alpha in an hour

And a in terms of how you actually fucking do this stuff and nine times out of ten

It's like we'll have a gut feeling and I'm like, okay, fuck me.

Thanks for Please keep paying us That is how it goes.

That's how it goes.

All man That's that's all we have for this week

Sorry for the late upload of this casual Friday something to listen to on a Friday night or a Saturday morning

Leave a like on this video before you leave throughout the channel.

We'd appreciate it We're catching up with BTC if you if we did it with our subs going up not BTC going down

Thank you to Wu for supporting the show as always.

There's some fun announcements coming on that front So keep an eye out for those if you haven't checked it out already you can do so in the description have

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