Emini End of Day Review - Monday April 22, 2024 - Brad Wolff - 双语字幕
Hope everybody is doing well.
Fairly interesting.
We're right at 5,000, the big round number.
And when you look at it,
we've had six consecutive bear days in a row starting from here to here in a seven bar bear micro channel.
And when you factor in this bar right here, it's a climactic.
bar.
And those reasons increase the chances that today was not going to be a seventh bar in a row for the bears.
We have a bear channel here.
And excuse me, Channels typically evolve into trading ranges, and right now we're right in the middle of the trading range spike pullback channel.
The expectation was we were going to test 5000 at a minimum.
Why 5000?
Because it's such an important magnet on the higher time frames.
Strong enough sell off, it's a trend line break, probably going to get a second leg down.
But because it's a trend line break, we could easily test all the way up here around 5200 before the market starts to go sideways.
In other words, we have a trend line break.
We probably need a retress, a retest, and some sort of higher low major trend reversal.
probably going to bounce for a few legs and then try and get a second leg down.
What the chances that would go to the next target all the way either here
or the close of last year or the January 5th low?
What's chances we go straight down?
Probably won't.
I suspect we'll probably go sideways first and the market will have to decide.
is this enough selling pressure to make it a bear trend.
The is it's a trend line break.
Trend line breaks evolve in the trading ranges,
which means we could pull back all the way up here before the bears get a second leg.
Weekly chart, strong selling, but is this enough for bear trend?
Of not, it's enough for a trading range.
We don't know where the bottom of the range is.
We have a breakout point here back in July of 2023.
Obviously we could test down there 4800, but what's more likely?
Are we gonna go straight down to 4800 or are we gonna pull back?
I think we're probably gonna pull back.
I do think, to be clear, I do think we'll get down here.
Five minute chart, we'd gap up right here on the open.
And a strong enough gap, especially with the daily chart, being as climactic as it was.
I the odds were high that the reviers below scaling and lower.
What about selling bar one?
one.
But if you take the cell, it's a minor reversal, a of legs sideways to down is more likely.
Bar two, we have a doji, probably sellers above two and another leg down.
And then three, we went, we tried to go outside up.
Good for the bear, good for the bulls.
The bulls prevented the bears from getting another strong bear bar.
What about buying above three?
I would not.
There's probably I suspect there's sellers above scaling and higher.
Now what's the problem with selling above three?
You have a gap up and one bar 81 here and one bear bar.
But the bear bar is not enough to do the gap.
In other words, we've been in a bear trend, we a trend line break, probably a second leg up.
Whenever you get a gap on the open, usually you get a second leg.
So the best the bears can realistically expect is some kind of trading range.
And then for where we broke out to the And we trapped the bears who sold the three high.
For the bears, the bears that sold the three high and scaled in is a game over for the bears, probably not.
Best case, we're probably in a trading range and the realities we're probably in a trading range.
So even though the bears are trapped selling above three,
They have a bad entry bar if they did sell above three and a good entry bar for the bulls
if they bought above three with four.
When you look at four, it's at the top of the trading range.
Chances are five is going to be disappointing.
Five is probably not going to look like 39 right here or 15 and be another strong.
And no surprise, five is a week.
Followed through bar for the bulls, but it's a weak stop entry cell for the bears.
And that increases the chances that there's buyers below for a second leg.
Six outside down, bulls who bought the close of four, disappointed, getting out break even.
And you can see we got a second leg up on seven.
what about buying above seven or buying above six or buying above one betting on
the breakout I would not trading range more likely and then you can see eight
outside down for the bears what about buying the eight low scaling and lower you can but it You probably need a really wide stop.
So really not ideal to be buying here.
Middle of a tight trading range.
Probably going to close the gap to three high.
It a bad buy signal bar above.
So the odds were, there were sellers above, and they got trapped.
And a lot of them, I suspect, scaled in higher.
tried to break below eight the found buyers it's a bear bar though good for the
bears probably gonna go least a little bit lower can you take the cell for a
swing some might taking a chance we break below three the tight trading range lasting four or five bars not really a 10,
another bear bar.
Now we have a four bar micro channel with three consecutive bear bars, probably sellers above 10 and a second leg down.
And you can see what happened on 11.
11, a lot of traders gave up and we sold off to the bottom of the three low.
The bull has tried to get four.
They were hopeful.
They were hopeful that three low and the four high was a breakout.
And had a two-legged pullback with six and eight or nine.
nine and instead of getting a second entry, the bears overwhelmed the bulls and the bulls gave up.
Eleven strong enough bar, another leg down, likely.
but we're right at the moving average and that'll increase the probability that there's buyers below scaling in lower.
12 consecutive bear bars,
good for the bears, probably going to go at least a little bit lower, but probably near the bottom of the trading range.
We may have to test the breakout points down here, but I suspect there will be traders buying somewhere lower.
Enough selling pressure.
The first reversal up probably will fail.
So the bulls who bought the close of 11 and they scaled in on 12,
they're probably sufficiently disappointed, which means they'll probably sell back at the 11 close bears.
Some bears didn't sell 11 because they thought it was that support.
And now that 12 has followed through, they may look to sell a pullback and you can see that's exactly what happened.
with 13.
13 pulled back and sold off.
Low one short for the bear is probably buyers below 13.
What about buyers above 14?
I don't know, there's probably sellers above 14.
We have a strong enough breakout, 11 and 12.
That will probably get a second leg down and we rallied on 11 pulled back rallied on 12 if 13 sells off
That would be a two-legged pullback and then 15 Excuse me 14 sold off.
It would be a two-legged pullback 15 bull breakout testing the 10-0 low.
No surprise.
Scaling bulls who bought the 10 low and more lower were able to avoid a Good for the bulls.
A sign we're probably in a trading range,
but it's a 50% pullback from the sell off at the eight high to the 12 low.
So probably another leg down.
16, bear bar, inside bar, probably bars below the scaling and lower, but for the reasons I mentioned,
we may get a leg one pullback and some kind of leg two, so fairly dangerous by below the 16 low.
17, decent bear bar.
Probably going to go at least a little bit lower.
And then instead, 18, we have a bull bar, is 18 enough to undo 17.
Probably not.
We have enough of a surprise 11 and 12.
Second leg down, 17.
We end up getting a third leg down, but 18 is a problem for the bears.
Bears sold the clothes of 17 will be quick to get out.
And reality is bulls buying here, scaling and lower probably will make money.
Bear's trying to get a second leg down with 19.
Bear seldom close with 17.
Disappointed 18.
Getting out around break even 19.
20.
Another bear bar.
Probably gonna go at least a little bit lower but what do you notice?
One, two, three.
If you're short and then 20 or 21.
excuse me if 21 or 22 reverses up a lot of bears will exit 21 another bear bar
three consecutive bear bars probably limited downside from here bears unable
to keep gaps open and with the gap up odds are we're gonna get either some form of a trading range In other words,
we'll probably get a spike pullback and an attempt at turn resumption.
Plus, the higher timeframes, we've been oversold, which increases the chances that there's buyers
somewhere down here, but the buyers may not come in until 5,000.
And we went, we had a doji on 22 for the Bears.
Bears buying the 18 low and more lower making money.
Probably going to start to go sideways.
23, a bull bar closing on its high after a wedge.
One, two, three and then one, two, three.
So nested with the third leg.
Probably a couple of legs sideways to up.
Always in bears.
They exit above 22.
Excuse me, they exit above 22.
24 strong enough bar, second leg up, likely 25.
A bar, but probably buyers below another leg up.
And then you can see 27 first beer bar.
Traders will buy that betting that this is leg one and we'll get some kind of leg two.
We end up getting all the way back up here where the bull started buying.
26 high one probably sellers above but whenever you get a high one the expectation is a pullback
followed by trend resumption and when the first leg is strong especially when you have a wedge bottom 3 12 and 21 or 22,
selling above a high one like 28 is really bad idea because the expectation is trend resumption.
You just may sometimes you get a pullback first and then trim resumption, but you have a really strong breakout.
The expectation is often immediate trim resumption.
2930 consecutive bull bars, bull is trying to get a second leg up with 24 25 26.
Probably going to get some kind of.
And then 30, 31 more bull bars, still by the close going higher.
What by the close 33?
Yeah, 34, we rallied and we sold off.
What's the probability that 34 is the high of the day?
It's probably not.
It's probably a minor reversal at best.
Tight channel, breakout on a 15-minute chart.
So you can see it right here.
Here's the breakout.
We get some kind of measure and move up of this.
So probably buyers below scaling and lower.
Beer bar closing when it's low, 35, possible parabolic wedge, one, two, three.
You can draw it right here.
But parabolic wedges are often minor reversals that lead to brief pullbacks and then second legs.
36, high one by, sellers above and a second leg down, likely, but like I said, parabolic wedge.
You will get, you often get a brief two-legged pullback that might last three, four bars and then trend resumption.
Bear bar 37, so two legs down after, second leg down after 35, two legs down after the wedge.
Bear bar pause, another bar probably buyers below scaling and lower.
And then we got a bull bar closing on it.
always in bears who sold anywhere below 35 or were short down here they have to
get out above this bar even if it's an inside bar 39 bear bar probably buyers
below 40 bull bar for the bears they're hopeful it's two legs up leg one pull
back like to and their sellers up here but we're getting after a strong breakout.
In words,
trading range,
best case for the bears,
second leg up,
likely leg one,
pull back,
So in other words, if you're selling here, you're not selling during the formation of this bar, and that's a fairly strong bull breakout.
And you can see, I'm going to speed it up a bit, we rallied very strong.
So bulls, bulls buying bears trying to sell, and then they get trapped with 42, followed through 43, 44.
it's by anywhere, by the clothes, by bear bar, by one take pullback.
by climax 48-49.
Probably the end of the trend for at least several bars or at least close to it,
but very often when you have a tight bull channel.
and you get a surprise $48.49.
Sometimes can get, in other words, when you get a climactic behavior $48.49, you often get an even more extreme climactic behavior $52.53.
And that's why it's really dangerous when you see bars like $48 to sell it.
You have to understand these are breakouts on higher time frames.
And that increases the probability that we'll go sideways at best.
And you As strong as 5253 was, we still got another leg up to the 59 high.
Bears probably get out below 62.
After the consecutive bike line max is probably going to test down to the 52 low at a minimum
at some point later in the day.
62 63 strong enough for another leg down probably buyers near.
But once you start going sideways for a lot of bars,
you have to conclude that we may get a second leg, leg one, pullback, and then maybe leg two.
Plus, think about the size of this pullback right here.
Here's the start of the move.
Here's the top of the move.
There's the bottom.
It's a 25% pullback and it's really not all that deep.
And then you can see what happened down here.
We sold off all the way to control it there.
And you can see we got consecutive airbar 7071 and then a strong bar 70.
However, probably buyers below scaling and lower, so what's going to happen?
We're probably going to test all the way back up here at some point.
Bears are hopeful that this is an endless pullback, lower high, and a sell-off.
So why do we sell off this?
Why do we sell off at the end of the day?
Because the bulls, the market became overbought and the market became unstable.
For stop entries, the first credible stop entry may be buying above three, but probably minor.
And then some traders might sell below nine or ten.
I think it's low probability.
And what else?
can you sell below 16?
Traders will or the sell of 17 starts to go lower betting on a second leg down 11 and 12 and then 23 is probably the best buy of the day.
We have a wedge one two three after a gap up odds were but we get at least two legs
And the odds favored the bulls getting a second leg up and I don't think five was the start of that second leg always in long can buy for any reason,
especially if you use a wide stop down here.
Can buy the pullbacks by above 38 made sense by above any of these bars, even 48, but it's a little bit aggressive.
And then I think 52 and 53 are better profit taking bars.
And then as far as buying 57, some traders will for a scalp, but overall probably going to go mostly sideways.
You'll have some traders selling below 63 betting on a second leg, but tough to do right at the moving average.
Enjoy top to sell anywhere in here,
although logically it may since probably sellers of limit order sellers above three sellers above six buyers below
these lows and then surprise 11 12 probably sellers above probably buyers below 12 scaling and lower
buyers below 18 buyers on the 27 clothes buyers below 32 scaling but you had to be prepared by a moving average,
which means you needed a wide stop and really a virus below anything.
And obviously, we got a very strong micro channel from 37 all the way to looks like 55.
So that is one,
two, 19 bar bull micro channel so fairly extreme and then buy the close sell the close sell the
close 11 or 12 probably okay especially if you can sell higher but to And then by the close 24, 25, 26 made sense.
By the close anywhere in here, you can almost buy.
And really at this point,
you can almost buy anything and buy any pullback,
especially if you can use wide stop and scale in and you're going to make money by the close all the way here.
I 52 technically by the close, but better to take profits.
And then I think it's really tough to buy the clothes of something like 53,
too much risk of a second leg and some sort of failure or reversal.
Okay, that, so where do we go tomorrow?
We have a disappointment bar.
we're probably going to begin to go sideways.
I think the market's going to pull back.
So I suspect we'll go sideways,
maybe test up towards 5100,
and then the market will decide,
do we have to pull back further to the moving average, or are we going to get the second leg?
I think we will get a second leg.
It's a question of how deep of a pullback, whenever you're selling down here.
If you think risk reward,
you're short,
if your stops up here,
your reward is lower than the bottom of the channel,
and that's probably that's really bad risk reward, which means a lot of traders would rather sell a pullback.
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