How would China's Invasion of Taiwan Unfold? | Vantage with Palki Sharma - Çift Dilli Altyazılar
Thanks for watching.
So, you hear the drum beats of war much like in Europe or West Asia, but the question is will Xi Jinping give the order?
Will he decide to invade Taiwan?
It's always been his goal.
Taiwan is unfinished business from China Civil War.
Mao could not capture it.
So Xi Jinping would love to do it.
It would immortalize him and secure his legacy.
So tonight, we're looking at three questions here.
One, how difficult would an invasion of Taiwan be?
Two, is China ready?
for it.
And three, what is the world's strategy?
Let's start with the first question.
An invasion would be extremely difficult.
Taiwan not some helpless island.
They armed to the teeth.
Just look at the global firepower rankings.
Taiwan ranks 24th.
They are ahead of NATO allies like Sweden and Canada.
and where does China rank at number three.
But are not fought on tables.
In the real world, China will face added challenges like geography and weather.
They will have to land soldiers in Taiwan and that means crossing the stretch of water, the Taiwan Strait.
It's around 140 kilometers long.
It's also very choppy waters, not ideal for an amphibious operation.
But let's assume that China beats the elements.
Taiwan will still be prepared.
Their strategy is called porcupine defense.
I talking about this animal, porcupine.
It sharp spikes all over its body and tail.
So, no one dares to attack it.
Why?
Because they know that the cost will be too high and that is Taiwan's strategy.
They have invested a lot in defense.
The defense spending increased by 5% every year as a share of GDP, it's 2.5%.
They spend 2.5% of their GDP on defense.
We're talking about a variety of defensive weapons like anti-ship missiles, naval landing spikes and mobile missile launchers.
But again, let's assume that China beats all of this.
They land on Taiwan's shores.
And more, they would face geography.
Taiwan has a lot of rugged mountains.
They offer natural protection.
And if you reach the cities, it's going to be urban warfare, like what you're seeing in Gaza.
So story short, it won't be easy.
Taiwan has prepared and practiced to repel a Chinese invasion.
Their way of life depends on it.
So expect a tough and bloody fight if it comes to that, which brings us to the second question.
Is China ready for it?
Does Xi Jinping have the appetite for war?
U.S.
officials have made their own assessment.
They think that Xi will wait until 2027.
By then he should have enough firepower.
But could he strike And I asked this for a reason.
China's growth is losing steam.
Their growth has largely stalled.
It expected to be three and a half percent by the end of this decade.
Same with their population.
China's labor force will be shrinking in 2030 by almost one percent.
So there are two ways of looking at it.
It may force Xi Jinping to advance his invasion because he may think,
now is the time, if this window closes, it may never happen again.
That's one way of looking at it.
The second option, he may take the advice of Deng Xiaoping.
Deng said, hide your strength, bite your time.
Xi Jinping may tweak that advice.
He may bite his time and rebuild his strength.
The Chinese president is not known to be a maverick.
So all bets are on delaying the attack.
Plus, any invasion would trigger sanctions, and must prepare for that too.
China has almost 1.4 billion people, you need to secure basic resources for them like food and power.
Now, Beijing has already stopped piling food grains, reports they have rice and wheat for up to two years, but energy is a bit tricky.
Most of China's fuel and gas comes from friendly nations like Russia and Saudi Arabia,
but they are transported in shipping tankers, tankers that can be cut off, so China is working on a solution for that.
Their Belt and Road project is trying to link West Asia via land.
They are also building gas pipelines from Russia.
So, China needs to take a lot of boxes here before they invade.
They will get one chance at this, which brings us to the final question.
What is the world's strategy?
The Americans are at the forefront of it.
A U.S.
law requires the White House to support Taiwan,
but it does not say how to Is it by deploying soldiers or giving weapons or simply offering political support?
This lack of clarity is called strategic ambiguity.
And Biden has stirred this pot many times.
He has said that the US will defend Taiwan.
His plan is to build alliances.
Let me pull up the map for you once again and show you the countries with US bases.
You have the Philippines, you Japan, South Korea and Guam, there thousands of US soldiers stationed in these bases.
and not to mention lots of firepower.
So if China invades, the US will be closed by either to intervene directly or to run support operations.
And that's the military side of things.
But frankly, the US alone won't be enough.
We are talking about a important region.
Taiwan supplies 90% of the most advanced semiconductors to the world, 90%, 90%.
The waters around it are also crucial.
It carries around 21%.
of global trade.
So, trouble in Taiwan is trouble for the whole world, yet most countries do not seem bothered.
We have seen a lot of activism for Palestine, but we have not seen the same put that way.
They don't even have a seat at the United Nations organizations.
The priority is to change that,
because China's biggest weapon is the one China policy and most countries recognize Taiwan as part of China, the one China policy.
So these countries may criticize the Chinese invasion,
but how can they actively oppose because their own policy is anti Taiwan and diluting this policy will be hard.
Taiwan could use its chip superpower to woo other countries.
It set up factories or investments abroad.
And frankly that's the only way.
For most countries, China is way more important than Taiwan until that changes.
Their policy will not.
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